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    DONALDSON Co (DCI)

    DCI Q4 2025: Forecasts Record Operating Margins on Backlog Strength

    Reported on Aug 27, 2025 (Before Market Open)
    Pre-Earnings Price$75.63Last close (Aug 26, 2025)
    Post-Earnings Price$76.05Open (Aug 27, 2025)
    Price Change
    $0.42(+0.56%)
    • Stabilized Agricultural Demand: Management indicated that ag orders appear to have bottomed out with low single-digit growth and signs of stabilization, suggesting that the worst in that historically volatile segment may be behind them.
    • Revenue Upside from Connected Solutions: Q&A discussion emphasized that increased connectivity in equipment has led to higher replacement parts sales and deeper customer relationships, which can drive improved margins and recurring revenue growth.
    • Robust Backlog and Cost Discipline: Executives highlighted strong backlog support and ongoing cost optimization initiatives—such as footprint reduction and expense management—that are expected to deliver record operating margins and further enhance profitability.
    • Delayed Bioprocessing Commercialization: The management indicated that bioprocessing solutions are taking longer than expected to reach scale, with significant revenue growth likely not materializing until fiscal 2027, which raises concerns about near-term profitability in one of its growth segments.
    • Weak Agricultural Demand: Comments on agricultural orders suggest they have merely bottomed with only low single-digit improvements, implying that the ag segment may continue to face headwinds and sluggish demand.
    • Uncertain China Outlook: While incoming orders in China have grown, management remained cautious about future performance in the region, highlighting the uncertainty and potential risk in one of its key markets.
    MetricPeriodPrevious GuidanceCurrent GuidanceChange

    Total Sales Growth (%)

    FY 2026

    1–3%

    1% to 5%

    raised

    Mobile Solutions Sales Growth (%)

    FY 2026

    flat to up 2%

    Flat to up 4%

    raised

    On-road Sales Growth (%)

    FY 2026

    Decline in the high teens

    High single digits

    raised

    Off-road Sales Growth (%)

    FY 2026

    Decline in the mid-single digits

    Mid-single digits

    raised

    Aftermarket Sales Growth (%)

    FY 2026

    Low single-digit increase

    Low single digits

    no change

    Industrial Solutions Sales Growth (%)

    FY 2026

    2–4%

    2% to 6%

    raised

    IFS (Industrial Filtration Solutions) Sales

    FY 2026

    Low single-digit growth

    Expected to improve across all businesses

    raised

    Aerospace and Defense Sales Growth (%)

    FY 2026

    Increase in the low teens

    Flat

    lowered

    Life Sciences Sales Growth (%)

    FY 2026

    High single-digit growth

    15%

    raised

    Operating Margin (%)

    FY 2026

    15.6–16%

    16.1% to 16.7%

    raised

    EPS ($)

    FY 2026

    $3.64–$3.70

    $3.92 to $4.08

    raised

    Cash Conversion (%)

    FY 2026

    80–90%

    85% to 95%

    raised

    Capital Expenditures (CapEx) ($)

    FY 2026

    $75 million to $90 million

    $65 million to $85 million

    lowered

    Incremental Margin (%)

    FY 2026

    no prior guidance

    Approximately 40%

    no prior guidance

    Pricing Contribution to Sales Growth (%)

    FY 2026

    no prior guidance

    Approximately 1%

    no prior guidance

    Currency Translation and Tariffs Impact

    FY 2026

    no prior guidance

    Negligible

    no prior guidance

    TopicPrevious MentionsCurrent PeriodTrend

    Agricultural Demand Dynamics

    Q3, Q2, and Q1 discussions highlighted significant weakness in agricultural markets with declining off‐road and on‐road sales and persistent uncertainty

    Q4 commentary noted that agricultural orders had bottomed out with a slight low single‐digit uptick, indicating stabilization rather than a robust rebound

    Improvement: Shifts from marked weakness to early signs of stabilization, though the gains remain modest.

    Connected Solutions Growth

    Across Q1 through Q3, connected machine growth and the resulting recurring replacement parts revenue were consistently mentioned, emphasizing roughly 30% growth and improved aftermarket performance

    Q4 continued to highlight robust connected solutions growth with expectations to grow connected machines by over 30% and recurring parts driving nearly 50% of sales

    Consistent Expansion: Ongoing emphasis on connected growth with slightly enhanced focus on revenue-driving relationships in Q4.

    Mobile Solutions Aftermarket

    Q1 through Q3 discussions emphasized steady revenue and market share gains—driven by share gains, balanced growth in OE and independent channels, and consistent aftermarket performance

    Q4 reported record results with increased total and aftermarket sales, supported by strategic partnerships and strong market share gains, especially via the independent channel

    Steady Strength: Persistent positive performance with a slight shift toward record sales and enhanced share gains in Q4.

    Aerospace & Defense Outlook

    Q1 through Q3 highlighted a mix of strong long‐term pipeline visibility with supply chain challenges causing lumpiness or flat guidance, along with occasional strong quarterly performance

    Q4 focused primarily on supply chain constraints (supplier‐driven) with less emphasis on the long‐term pipeline

    Mixed Sentiment: While earlier periods balanced pipeline optimism with supply chain issues, Q4 leans more toward caution due to persistent supply constraints.

    Cost Management and Margin Optimization

    Q1 through Q3 consistently discussed disciplined expense control, cost and footprint optimization—including plant rationalizations and structural shifts—that pressured near-term margins but were expected to deliver long-term benefits

    Q4 reported improved operating expense ratios and a record operating margin of 16.4%, citing continued structural cost changes and footprint optimization initiatives

    Steady Improvement: Ongoing cost optimization efforts continue to yield improvements, with Q4 showing further margin gains and efficient expense management.

    Delayed Bioprocessing Commercialization

    Q1 through Q3 detailed persistent delays and elongation in bioprocessing project commercialization—with challenges such as impairment charges, delayed capital projects, and deferred projects affecting near-term growth

    Q4 reiterated that commercialization is delayed with significant revenue contributions now pushed to fiscal 2027, reinforcing near-term headwinds

    Continued Headwind: Across all periods the segment struggles with delays, and Q4 confirms that near-term growth remains muted despite ongoing development efforts.

    China Market Developments

    Q1 and Q2 mentioned technology wins—such as structural shifts toward sophisticated equipment and strong aftermarket growth—while maintaining an uncertain outlook due to macroeconomic weakness; Q3 had no specific discussion

    Q4 noted incoming orders and positive economic progression alongside technology wins, yet maintained a cautious overall outlook

    Balanced Optimism with Caution: The region continues to deliver technology-led wins and order improvements, but uncertainty over sustained growth persists.

    FX Headwinds and Global Economic/Tariff Uncertainty

    Q1 through Q3 presented a mixed picture—with FX sometimes acting as a tailwind in Q1, modest headwinds in Q2 and Q3, and tariffs having minimal impact due to a strong regional footprint and mitigating strategies

    Q4 highlighted that while currency impacts remain negligible, tariff-related inflation affected LIFO valuation, yet overall the company remains well positioned

    Managed Uncertainty: Despite mixed FX results over prior periods, Q4 reinforces that effective regional strategies and pricing mitigate tariff and global economic uncertainties.

    Life Sciences Segment Challenges

    Q1 to Q3 uniformly stressed significant headwinds in the bioprocessing space—ranging from project delays extending by one to two years, impairment charges, and subdued capital spending—to reshape the segment’s strategy

    Q4 reaffirmed challenges in bioprocessing with delayed commercialization, minimal near-term revenue bounce, and ongoing headwinds

    Persistent Issues: The Life Sciences segment continues to face structural and market challenges with no near-term resolution, maintaining the difficulties noted in previous periods.

    Organizational Redesign and Structural Shifts

    Q1 through Q3 described comprehensive organizational redesign and restructuring initiatives—including plant rationalization, cost reduction actions, and strategic prioritization—to drive long-term profitability

    Q4 laid out further restructuring efforts with significant pretax charges for footprint optimization and cost reduction, aiming for more efficient operations by 2026

    Ongoing Transformation: Continuous organizational redesign with progressive structural shifts, building on past initiatives to create a more agile and cost-effective company structure.

    Independent Aftermarket Channel Demand Pullback

    Q1 emphasized strong market share gains and steady demand with no pullback, whereas Q2 reported a cautious pullback in demand in the independent channel; Q3, however, indicated stable, pull-through demand across channels

    Q4 described the independent channel as experiencing a more muted demand pullback, with expectations for growth driven by ongoing share gains, reaching $1 billion in sales

    Recovery Signals: After a noted pullback in Q2, demand in the independent aftermarket appears stable in Q3 and Q4, suggesting a return to growth with continued share gains.

    Free Cash Flow Conversion and Investment Constraints

    Q1 showed lower FCF conversion (47%) due to upfront working capital investments, while Q2 and Q3 indicated gradual improvements toward historical averages; investment constraints were consistently managed with controlled CapEx targeting growth

    Q4 reported a remarkable 123% cash conversion for fiscal 2025 and a cautious capex approach for fiscal 2026, reflecting continued prioritization of high-return investments

    Improvement and Caution: Free cash flow conversion has notably improved from Q1 through Q4, while investment remains disciplined amid market uncertainties, maintaining a focus on high-priority projects.

    1. Margin Outlook
      Q: How will margins trend this year?
      A: Management expects record operating margins to gradually improve—about 70 bps up—driven by gross margin expansion and tighter expense control amid cost reductions and easing LIFO impacts.

    2. Capital Allocation
      Q: What are your M&A and CapEx plans?
      A: They plan to maintain a balanced approach with share repurchases around 2–3%, disciplined CapEx roughly at 2–2.5% of sales, and ample dry powder for strategic acquisitions.

    3. Ag Demand
      Q: When did ag orders bottom and what growth?
      A: Management noted ag orders bottomed in Q4 with only a modest, low single-digit uptick expected, suggesting no strong rebound in fiscal 2026.

    4. Bioprocessing Outlook
      Q: When might bioprocessing become profitable?
      A: Traditional Life Sciences remain robust, but the upstream bioprocessing segment is still subdued, with significant revenue and breakeven goals likely deferred until around FY 2027.

    5. Connected Growth
      Q: What is the strategy for connected products?
      A: The approach isn’t a subscription model; it deepens customer relationships, boosting replacement parts sales and shifting the mix from around 60/40 to 50/50 between first fit and replacement parts.

    6. Quarterly Growth
      Q: What mix of volume and pricing do you expect?
      A: Growth is anticipated to be smooth, underpinned by consistent pricing adjustments and modest volume increases—about 2% year-over-year with less volatility quarter-to-quarter.

    7. China & Backlog
      Q: How did China orders and backlogs perform?
      A: China saw 14% growth in orders with solid new project wins, and overall backlogs remain comfortably aligned—indeed below pre-pandemic levels—supporting current guidance.

    8. Mobile Aftermarket
      Q: What drives mobile aftermarket growth?
      A: Gains in the independent channel and resumed OE restocking are key, fueling improved share and positioning the segment for continued steady growth.

    9. Power Gen Cycle
      Q: What is the status of the power generation backlog?
      A: The power gen business remains robust with a full capacity and a long-term backlog, even as pricing discipline occasionally results in lost bids, underscoring steady demand.

    10. Distribution Impact
      Q: Are distribution wins materially boosting growth?
      A: Yes, strong distribution channel wins—like partnerships with NAPA and Mighty Distributing—are driving expanded market share and positively impacting revenue growth.

    11. Industrial Projects
      Q: Is there a ramp-up in industrial project pipelines?
      A: Industrial project quotes remain solid but without a notable acceleration, reflecting stable execution rather than a dramatic surge in new orders.

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