DCI Q4 2025: Forecasts Record Operating Margins on Backlog Strength
- Stabilized Agricultural Demand: Management indicated that ag orders appear to have bottomed out with low single-digit growth and signs of stabilization, suggesting that the worst in that historically volatile segment may be behind them.
- Revenue Upside from Connected Solutions: Q&A discussion emphasized that increased connectivity in equipment has led to higher replacement parts sales and deeper customer relationships, which can drive improved margins and recurring revenue growth.
- Robust Backlog and Cost Discipline: Executives highlighted strong backlog support and ongoing cost optimization initiatives—such as footprint reduction and expense management—that are expected to deliver record operating margins and further enhance profitability.
- Delayed Bioprocessing Commercialization: The management indicated that bioprocessing solutions are taking longer than expected to reach scale, with significant revenue growth likely not materializing until fiscal 2027, which raises concerns about near-term profitability in one of its growth segments.
- Weak Agricultural Demand: Comments on agricultural orders suggest they have merely bottomed with only low single-digit improvements, implying that the ag segment may continue to face headwinds and sluggish demand.
- Uncertain China Outlook: While incoming orders in China have grown, management remained cautious about future performance in the region, highlighting the uncertainty and potential risk in one of its key markets.
| Metric | Period | Previous Guidance | Current Guidance | Change | 
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Sales Growth (%) | FY 2026 | 1–3% | 1% to 5% | raised | 
| Mobile Solutions Sales Growth (%) | FY 2026 | flat to up 2% | Flat to up 4% | raised | 
| On-road Sales Growth (%) | FY 2026 | Decline in the high teens | High single digits | raised | 
| Off-road Sales Growth (%) | FY 2026 | Decline in the mid-single digits | Mid-single digits | raised | 
| Aftermarket Sales Growth (%) | FY 2026 | Low single-digit increase | Low single digits | no change | 
| Industrial Solutions Sales Growth (%) | FY 2026 | 2–4% | 2% to 6% | raised | 
| IFS (Industrial Filtration Solutions) Sales | FY 2026 | Low single-digit growth | Expected to improve across all businesses | raised | 
| Aerospace and Defense Sales Growth (%) | FY 2026 | Increase in the low teens | Flat | lowered | 
| Life Sciences Sales Growth (%) | FY 2026 | High single-digit growth | 15% | raised | 
| Operating Margin (%) | FY 2026 | 15.6–16% | 16.1% to 16.7% | raised | 
| EPS ($) | FY 2026 | $3.64–$3.70 | $3.92 to $4.08 | raised | 
| Cash Conversion (%) | FY 2026 | 80–90% | 85% to 95% | raised | 
| Capital Expenditures (CapEx) ($) | FY 2026 | $75 million to $90 million | $65 million to $85 million | lowered | 
| Incremental Margin (%) | FY 2026 | no prior guidance | Approximately 40% | no prior guidance | 
| Pricing Contribution to Sales Growth (%) | FY 2026 | no prior guidance | Approximately 1% | no prior guidance | 
| Currency Translation and Tariffs Impact | FY 2026 | no prior guidance | Negligible | no prior guidance | 
| Topic | Previous Mentions | Current Period | Trend | 
|---|---|---|---|
| Agricultural Demand Dynamics | Q3, Q2, and Q1 discussions highlighted significant weakness in agricultural markets with declining off‐road and on‐road sales and persistent uncertainty | Q4 commentary noted that agricultural orders had bottomed out with a slight low single‐digit uptick, indicating stabilization rather than a robust rebound | Improvement: Shifts from marked weakness to early signs of stabilization, though the gains remain modest. | 
| Connected Solutions Growth | Across Q1 through Q3, connected machine growth and the resulting recurring replacement parts revenue were consistently mentioned, emphasizing roughly 30% growth and improved aftermarket performance | Q4 continued to highlight robust connected solutions growth with expectations to grow connected machines by over 30% and recurring parts driving nearly 50% of sales | Consistent Expansion: Ongoing emphasis on connected growth with slightly enhanced focus on revenue-driving relationships in Q4. | 
| Mobile Solutions Aftermarket | Q1 through Q3 discussions emphasized steady revenue and market share gains—driven by share gains, balanced growth in OE and independent channels, and consistent aftermarket performance | Q4 reported record results with increased total and aftermarket sales, supported by strategic partnerships and strong market share gains, especially via the independent channel | Steady Strength: Persistent positive performance with a slight shift toward record sales and enhanced share gains in Q4. | 
| Aerospace & Defense Outlook | Q1 through Q3 highlighted a mix of strong long‐term pipeline visibility with supply chain challenges causing lumpiness or flat guidance, along with occasional strong quarterly performance | Q4 focused primarily on supply chain constraints (supplier‐driven) with less emphasis on the long‐term pipeline | Mixed Sentiment: While earlier periods balanced pipeline optimism with supply chain issues, Q4 leans more toward caution due to persistent supply constraints. | 
| Cost Management and Margin Optimization | Q1 through Q3 consistently discussed disciplined expense control, cost and footprint optimization—including plant rationalizations and structural shifts—that pressured near-term margins but were expected to deliver long-term benefits | Q4 reported improved operating expense ratios and a record operating margin of 16.4%, citing continued structural cost changes and footprint optimization initiatives | Steady Improvement: Ongoing cost optimization efforts continue to yield improvements, with Q4 showing further margin gains and efficient expense management. | 
| Delayed Bioprocessing Commercialization | Q1 through Q3 detailed persistent delays and elongation in bioprocessing project commercialization—with challenges such as impairment charges, delayed capital projects, and deferred projects affecting near-term growth | Q4 reiterated that commercialization is delayed with significant revenue contributions now pushed to fiscal 2027, reinforcing near-term headwinds | Continued Headwind: Across all periods the segment struggles with delays, and Q4 confirms that near-term growth remains muted despite ongoing development efforts. | 
| China Market Developments | Q1 and Q2 mentioned technology wins—such as structural shifts toward sophisticated equipment and strong aftermarket growth—while maintaining an uncertain outlook due to macroeconomic weakness; Q3 had no specific discussion | Q4 noted incoming orders and positive economic progression alongside technology wins, yet maintained a cautious overall outlook | Balanced Optimism with Caution: The region continues to deliver technology-led wins and order improvements, but uncertainty over sustained growth persists. | 
| FX Headwinds and Global Economic/Tariff Uncertainty | Q1 through Q3 presented a mixed picture—with FX sometimes acting as a tailwind in Q1, modest headwinds in Q2 and Q3, and tariffs having minimal impact due to a strong regional footprint and mitigating strategies | Q4 highlighted that while currency impacts remain negligible, tariff-related inflation affected LIFO valuation, yet overall the company remains well positioned | Managed Uncertainty: Despite mixed FX results over prior periods, Q4 reinforces that effective regional strategies and pricing mitigate tariff and global economic uncertainties. | 
| Life Sciences Segment Challenges | Q1 to Q3 uniformly stressed significant headwinds in the bioprocessing space—ranging from project delays extending by one to two years, impairment charges, and subdued capital spending—to reshape the segment’s strategy | Q4 reaffirmed challenges in bioprocessing with delayed commercialization, minimal near-term revenue bounce, and ongoing headwinds | Persistent Issues: The Life Sciences segment continues to face structural and market challenges with no near-term resolution, maintaining the difficulties noted in previous periods. | 
| Organizational Redesign and Structural Shifts | Q1 through Q3 described comprehensive organizational redesign and restructuring initiatives—including plant rationalization, cost reduction actions, and strategic prioritization—to drive long-term profitability | Q4 laid out further restructuring efforts with significant pretax charges for footprint optimization and cost reduction, aiming for more efficient operations by 2026 | Ongoing Transformation: Continuous organizational redesign with progressive structural shifts, building on past initiatives to create a more agile and cost-effective company structure. | 
| Independent Aftermarket Channel Demand Pullback | Q1 emphasized strong market share gains and steady demand with no pullback, whereas Q2 reported a cautious pullback in demand in the independent channel; Q3, however, indicated stable, pull-through demand across channels | Q4 described the independent channel as experiencing a more muted demand pullback, with expectations for growth driven by ongoing share gains, reaching $1 billion in sales | Recovery Signals: After a noted pullback in Q2, demand in the independent aftermarket appears stable in Q3 and Q4, suggesting a return to growth with continued share gains. | 
| Free Cash Flow Conversion and Investment Constraints | Q1 showed lower FCF conversion (47%) due to upfront working capital investments, while Q2 and Q3 indicated gradual improvements toward historical averages; investment constraints were consistently managed with controlled CapEx targeting growth | Q4 reported a remarkable 123% cash conversion for fiscal 2025 and a cautious capex approach for fiscal 2026, reflecting continued prioritization of high-return investments | Improvement and Caution: Free cash flow conversion has notably improved from Q1 through Q4, while investment remains disciplined amid market uncertainties, maintaining a focus on high-priority projects. | 
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Margin Outlook 
 Q: How will margins trend this year?
 A: Management expects record operating margins to gradually improve—about 70 bps up—driven by gross margin expansion and tighter expense control amid cost reductions and easing LIFO impacts.
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Capital Allocation 
 Q: What are your M&A and CapEx plans?
 A: They plan to maintain a balanced approach with share repurchases around 2–3%, disciplined CapEx roughly at 2–2.5% of sales, and ample dry powder for strategic acquisitions.
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Ag Demand 
 Q: When did ag orders bottom and what growth?
 A: Management noted ag orders bottomed in Q4 with only a modest, low single-digit uptick expected, suggesting no strong rebound in fiscal 2026.
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Bioprocessing Outlook 
 Q: When might bioprocessing become profitable?
 A: Traditional Life Sciences remain robust, but the upstream bioprocessing segment is still subdued, with significant revenue and breakeven goals likely deferred until around FY 2027.
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Connected Growth 
 Q: What is the strategy for connected products?
 A: The approach isn’t a subscription model; it deepens customer relationships, boosting replacement parts sales and shifting the mix from around 60/40 to 50/50 between first fit and replacement parts.
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Quarterly Growth 
 Q: What mix of volume and pricing do you expect?
 A: Growth is anticipated to be smooth, underpinned by consistent pricing adjustments and modest volume increases—about 2% year-over-year with less volatility quarter-to-quarter.
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China & Backlog 
 Q: How did China orders and backlogs perform?
 A: China saw 14% growth in orders with solid new project wins, and overall backlogs remain comfortably aligned—indeed below pre-pandemic levels—supporting current guidance.
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Mobile Aftermarket 
 Q: What drives mobile aftermarket growth?
 A: Gains in the independent channel and resumed OE restocking are key, fueling improved share and positioning the segment for continued steady growth.
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Power Gen Cycle 
 Q: What is the status of the power generation backlog?
 A: The power gen business remains robust with a full capacity and a long-term backlog, even as pricing discipline occasionally results in lost bids, underscoring steady demand.
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Distribution Impact 
 Q: Are distribution wins materially boosting growth?
 A: Yes, strong distribution channel wins—like partnerships with NAPA and Mighty Distributing—are driving expanded market share and positively impacting revenue growth.
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Industrial Projects 
 Q: Is there a ramp-up in industrial project pipelines?
 A: Industrial project quotes remain solid but without a notable acceleration, reflecting stable execution rather than a dramatic surge in new orders.
Research analysts covering DONALDSON Co.